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Is India a Monsoon Economy ?
An agricultural drought has very specific effects on
crops and regions, and the rainfall pattern on more important welfare effects
like drinking water and employment
Is India a
‘monsoon economy’? Not true any longer. Until the mid-1970s, in half the year’s
growth was negative and in the other half the economy grew between 3 percent
and 6 percent, giving us the average Hindu growth rate. But since then, we had
only two years with a growth of less than 3 percent. It has been argued by
Arvind Panagriya that volatility is higher now. Even that is not the complete
picture. If you compare the Sixties of the last century with the post mid
seventies period volatility is less now.
A meteorological and an agricultural drought are, to an extent, two
different issues. An agricultural drought has very specific effects on crops
and regions, and the rainfall pattern on more important welfare effects like
drinking water and employment. Human welfare is very important and tracking the
events and ameliorating policies in a time-bound manner are essential.
